Computer simulation proves unkind to Leafs
Posted by admin
TORONTO - Near the end of a telephone conversation early yesterday afternoon, Armann Ingolfsson, a hockey fan and business professor at the University of Alberta, was asked if there was any reason for optimism as the Toronto Maple Leafs continued to chase a berth in the National Hockey League playoffs.”Well, I mean, stranger things have happened,” he said, before pausing. “I can’t think of anything specific.”According to a computer simulation Ingolfsson devised to teach his second-year students, the Leafs had been reduced to a 2.3% chance of qualifying for the post-season following the results of Tuesday night’s games. Toronto beat the New York Islanders, but remained six points adrift of the eighth and final playoff spot with only eight games to play.If the Leafs found themselves in the exact same position for 45 consecutive seasons, Ingolfsson said, they would probably only squeak into the playoffs once. It has been 41 years since the franchise won the Stanley Cup.”Even if they were to win all of their remaining games,” Ingolfsson said, “it wouldn’t be a certainty that they would make it.”The program is run through a common spreadsheet program, and accounts for variables such as strength of schedule and winning percentages. The professor said he hatched the idea four or five years ago as a teaching aid for an operations management class, using hockey as a way to help students grasp the methodology.It was also a way for Ingolfsson to monitor the Edmonton Oilers, who have been on the bubble of post-season contention for years. Edmonton, five points out of a playoff spot with eight games left as of yesterday, had a 13.1% chance thanks to a terrific push down the stretch drive.In January, the picture was not quite as bright.”It was not looking very good for the Oilers, so I was a bit worried about telling anyone about this,” Ingolfsson said. “I have had two flat tires since, and I hope it has nothing to do with that.”Only three teams — Detroit, Pittsburgh and San Jose– were listed yesterday as 100% locks to play beyond the regular season. Anaheim, New Jersey and Montreal were each 99.9% assured of post-season action.Five teams had no chance –Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Los Angeles, St. Louis and the New York Islanders. The Chicago Blackhawks were the next lowest, with a 1.5% chance.And then there were the Leafs.”We honestly believe we can make the playoffs, just like we did at the start of the year,” defenceman Bryan McCabe said. “You can’t start doubting yourself. We can’t let all you guys get us down with the stuff you write, so we keep a positive attitude in here.”Each of Toronto’s eight remaining games will feature rivals from the Northeast Division, including a pair of meetings with the Canadiens, a team fighting for first overall in the conference. The Leafs visit Buffalo tomorrow and Ottawa the following night.Toronto had a 4.2% chance of qualifying a week ago, but lost ground with a weekend loss to the Sabres. Back-to-back losses this weekend could reduce that percentage to zero.”Our team has been written off by the media and the public for a long time, and as pro hockey players, we’re never going to come in here and lose games on purpose,” forward Matt Stajan said. “We’re never going to give up on our season, and I think we’ve shown that.”Toronto scored three goals in the third period to force overtime in a must-win game last week against Philadelphia, and rebounded again two nights ago in Long Island after goaltender Vesa Toskala allowed a bouncing puck to beat him from more than 190 feet.”If you don’t believe, then you shouldn’t be playing,” Stajan said. “We’re trying to win games. We’re going to have to keep winning here. You keep climbing and you never know what can happen.”
Tags: game, hockey league, regul, s games
Leave a Reply